John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB)
Valuation Overview•Is John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Moderate quality score of 65/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
JMSB demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($39M) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 24.7% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.1M | +2.6% | — | — | +11.3% | |
| EBITDA | $8.0M | — | -11.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $6.1M | +24.0% | -12.6% | — | +9.1% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.43 | +24.2% | -12.8% | +2.0% | +8.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.5M | +31.3% | -12.6% | -1.6% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 54.1% | 48.6% | 63.0% | 68.6% |
| Operating Margin | 24.7% | 17.5% | 28.4% | 28.8% |
| Net Margin | 19.3% | 13.2% | 22.1% | 21.5% |
| FCF Margin | 20.5% | 18.1% | 27.0% | 26.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.40 | $0.43 | +7.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $0.42 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.39 | $0.42 | +7.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.37 | $0.38 | +2.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.34 | $0.36 | +5.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $0.34 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.34 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.33 | — |
Total return is +20.5% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -0.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +12.2% | +4.8% | — |
| 1Y | +20.5% | -0.4% | +2.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +3.0% | -15.3% | +4.5% |
| 5YCAGR | +5.1% | -6.5% | +6.4% |
| 10YCAGR | +6.0% | -7.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. appears Fair versus peers compared to industry peers.
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $22.69 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $24.00 (implying +9.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 65/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 6.0%.
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. pays a 1.4% dividend yield, covered by a 20% payout ratio with 3 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.8% buyback yield.
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +2.6% 1Y revenue growth and +24.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 1 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 100% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +9.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. include: -12.6% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.37x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.