MODEL VERDICT
OPENLANE, Inc. (KAR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $27.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $20.33 | -25.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $27.66 | +0.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $22.28 | -18.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $88.58 | +222.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $19.26 | -29.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $154.01 | +461.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $5.49 | -80.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $8.08 | -70.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $21.65 | -21.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $83.07 | +202.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.14 | +60.9% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $26 | $29 | $32 | $36 |
| Conservative (7%) | $23 | $26 | $30 | $33 | $37 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $23 | $27 | $31 | $34 | $38 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $24 | $28 | $32 | $35 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.27 | 44.09 | 18.16 | 55.79 | 15.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 58.03 | 25.04 | 12.81 | 209.64 | 76.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.33 | 15.58 | 8.30 | 21.74 | 5.45 |
| P/FCF | 8.31 | 8.66 | 6.31 | 9.58 | 1.18 |
| P/FFO | 11.25 | 10.72 | 4.45 | 21.95 | 5.91 |
| P/AFFO | 61.65 | 14.64 | 5.41 | 293.45 | 113.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.00 | 2.10 | 0.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.29 | 1.21 | 0.98 | 1.81 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates KAR's fair value at $44.14 vs the current price of $27.44, implying +60.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.70 (P10) to $56.10 (P90), with a median of $44.99.
KAR's current P/E of 16.7x compares to the industry median of 13.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +23.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.3x over 5 years. Signal: Premium.
18 analysts cover KAR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $32.00 — $32.00), implying +16.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KAR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (6.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5590.0% to approximately $43. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.