MODEL VERDICT
Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Karooooo Ltd. (KARO)
Karooooo Ltd. (KARO) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Karooooo Ltd. (KARO)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $47.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $45.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $48.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $51.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $45.59 | Pending | +10.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $687.50 | +1356.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $1524.16 | +3127.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $784.98 | +1562.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $587.13 | +1143.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $1087.03 | +2202.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $569.05 | +1105.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $804.80 | +1604.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $593.49 | +1156.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $561.25 | +1088.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $870.62 | +1743.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $587.84 | +1144.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $712.88 | +1409.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $666 | $729 | $793 | $856 | $920 |
| Conservative (10%) | $691 | $757 | $823 | $888 | $954 |
| Base Case (16.0%) | $726 | $795 | $864 | $934 | $1003 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $761 | $834 | $906 | $979 | $1051 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.86 | 1.57 | 1.26 | 3.07 | 0.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 1.27 | 0.98 | 0.31 | 2.81 | 1.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.76 | 0.60 | 0.17 | 1.69 | 0.65 |
| P/FCF | 4.84 | 1.86 | 1.26 | 17.43 | 7.05 |
| P/FFO | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 1.28 | 0.25 |
| P/TBV | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.32 | 0.82 | 0.19 |
| P/AFFO | 2.44 | 2.36 | 1.43 | 4.07 | 1.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.28 | 0.70 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 0.48 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.43 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates KARO's fair value at $712.88 vs the current price of $47.22, implying +1409.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $712.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $493.32 (P10) to $756.19 (P90), with a median of $623.24.
KARO's current P/E of 25.3x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -3.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.9x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover KARO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $61.00 (range: $60.00 — $62.00), implying +29.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 19.5% is 3.5 percentage points above the 5-year average (15.9%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$45. (2) Multiple compression: KARO trades at the 4510th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.9×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KARO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (15.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 400.0% to approximately $45. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.