MODEL VERDICT
Kingsway Financial Services Inc. (KFS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $10.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $11.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $11.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $11.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $11.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $8.66 | -19.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $7.65 | -28.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.81 | -27.0% | 100% | 53 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 241.35 | 71.44 | 16.88 | 635.75 | 342.64 |
| P/FFO | 6978.86 | 26.14 | 6.44 | 34814.81 | 15560.78 |
| P/AFFO | 32.87 | 37.16 | 7.51 | 49.65 | 18.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.99 | 9.03 | 1.96 | 23.48 | 6.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.60 | 2.78 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates KFS's fair value at $7.81 vs the current price of $10.70, implying -27.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.87 (P10) to $10.90 (P90), with a median of $8.37.
KFS's current P/E of -24.9x compares to the industry median of 15.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -263.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for KFS.
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KFS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.