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The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$24.24
→
Intrinsic$31.97
+32%
$17.06$31.97$60.32
Market implies 4% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests KHC could have 32% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $24, the market prices in only 4% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $17 → Bull $60. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $41 | $46 | $51 | $57 |
| 10% | $25 | $28 | $32 | $36 |
| 12% | $16 | $18 | $21 | $24 |
| 14% | $10 | $12 | $14 | $17 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($60) offers 149% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- 24% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (4%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($17) implies 30% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$3.41B
Year 2$3.69B
Year 3$3.98B
Year 4$4.30B
Year 5$4.64B
Terminal$68.32B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$3.16BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.