MODEL VERDICT
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $22.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $22.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $22.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $23.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $29.55 | +31.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $47.07 | +109.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $7.41 | -67.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $53.96 | +139.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $18.93 | -15.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $19.69 | -12.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $47.07 | +109.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.03 | +42.4% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.09 | 20.82 | 13.59 | 119.52 | 40.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.76 | 17.27 | 14.15 | 31.59 | 7.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.75 | 15.74 | 11.62 | 21.78 | 4.00 |
| P/FCF | 14.48 | 11.81 | 7.86 | 32.37 | 8.31 |
| P/FFO | 17.66 | 14.34 | 10.11 | 32.12 | 8.39 |
| P/AFFO | 28.73 | 19.66 | 14.76 | 58.38 | 18.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.84 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 1.03 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.59 | 1.63 | 1.15 | 1.90 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates KHC's fair value at $32.03 vs the current price of $22.49, implying +42.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.20 (P10) to $39.28 (P90), with a median of $33.70.
KHC's current P/E of -4.6x compares to the industry median of 18.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -125.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
35 analysts cover KHC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $23.38 (range: $18.00 — $27.00), implying +4.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (21), Sell (10), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for KHC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.