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Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$20.78
→
Intrinsic$32.45
+56%
$18.37$32.45$59.17
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests KIM could have 56% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $21, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $18 → Bull $59. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$42$47$51$56
10%$26$29$32$36
12%$17$20$22$25
14%$12$13$15$17

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($59) offers 185% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • 36% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (12%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($18) implies 12% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$1.22B
Year 2$1.46B
Year 3$1.75B
Year 4$2.10B
Year 5$2.52B
Terminal$37.14B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$1.01BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is KIM stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

KIM trades at $20.78 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $32.45, implying +60% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of KIM's future cash flows. The bear case ($17.24) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is KIM's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.01B, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $7.89B net debt and dividing by 0.67B shares: Bear $17.24 | Base $32.45 | Bull $54.84. Current price $20.78 implies +60% to base case.

How is KIM's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($29.70B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.