Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$23.55
→
Intrinsic$32.45
+38%
$18.37$32.45$59.17
Market implies 14% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests KIM could have 38% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $24, the market prices in 14% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $18 → Bull $59. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $42 | $47 | $51 | $56 |
| 10% | $26 | $29 | $32 | $36 |
| 12% | $17 | $20 | $22 | $25 |
| 14% | $12 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($59) offers 151% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- 27% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (14%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($18) implies 22% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$1.22B
Year 2$1.46B
Year 3$1.75B
Year 4$2.10B
Year 5$2.52B
Terminal$37.14B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$1.01BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.