MODEL VERDICT
Kemper Corporation (KMPR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $34.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $32.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $33.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $32.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $31.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $67.14 | +96.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $88.03 | +157.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $37.85 | +10.8% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $74.40 | +117.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $67.13 | +96.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $55.21 | +61.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $137.18 | +301.7% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $41.60 | +21.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.32 | +88.3% | 100% | 90 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $20 | $25 | $35 | $45 | $55 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $26 | $36 | $46 | $57 |
| Base Case (-9.2%) | $18 | $22 | $31 | $40 | $49 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $17 | $22 | $30 | $39 | $47 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.07 | 13.02 | 9.74 | 20.49 | 4.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.89 | 11.90 | 8.24 | 19.52 | 4.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.07 | 11.76 | 8.01 | 12.76 | 2.24 |
| P/FCF | 11.72 | 12.90 | 8.22 | 13.05 | 2.07 |
| P/FFO | 10.52 | 10.90 | 8.69 | 11.58 | 1.27 |
| P/TBV | 2.62 | 2.39 | 1.57 | 3.80 | 0.93 |
| P/AFFO | 12.31 | 12.80 | 10.12 | 13.52 | 1.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.25 | 1.28 | 0.94 | 1.55 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.84 | 0.93 | 0.58 | 1.06 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates KMPR's fair value at $64.32 vs the current price of $34.15, implying +88.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.01 (P10) to $74.50 (P90), with a median of $65.78.
KMPR's current P/E of 7.0x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -49.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.1x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover KMPR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $48.00 (range: $48.00 — $48.00), implying +40.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KMPR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 290.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.