Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)
Valuation Overview•Is Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Fragile underlying quality score of 42/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
KNX struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (2.9%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9B | +0.8% | +0.2% | +9.8% | +20.2% | |
| EBITDA | $225.8M | — | -16.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$1.3M | -43.9% | -55.9% | — | -5.5% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.01 | -43.8% | -55.7% | -29.8% | -14.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $142.5M | +3899.6% | +6.3% | +13.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 30.6% | 26.7% | 29.1% | 28.4% |
| Operating Margin | 2.9% | 3.8% | 8.4% | 9.5% |
| Net Margin | 0.5% | 1.8% | 5.7% | 8.0% |
| FCF Margin | 17.8% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.09 | $0.09 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.36 | $0.31 | -13.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.37 | $0.32 | -13.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.34 | $0.35 | +2.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.24 | $0.28 | +19.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.33 | $0.36 | +9.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.32 | $0.34 | +6.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.27 | $0.24 | -12.5% |
Total return is +74.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +49.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +42.7% | +33.4% | — |
| 1Y | +74.8% | +49.8% | +1.8% |
| 3YCAGR | +12.6% | -7.5% | +3.8% |
| 5YCAGR | +11.5% | -1.5% | +6.7% |
| 10YCAGR | +10.9% | -2.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) valuation, health, and returns.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -22.7% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $57.33)
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $57.33 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $75.76 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $76.20 (implying +2.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 42/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.1 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 2.0%.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. pays a 1.0% dividend yield, covered by a 178% payout ratio with 6 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +0.8% 1Y revenue growth and -43.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +0.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 36 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +2.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. include: -19.2% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.21x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.