MODEL VERDICT
Koppers Holdings Inc. (KOP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $41.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $40.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $37.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $37.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $37.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $77.57 | +85.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $91.97 | +119.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $68.89 | +64.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $125.35 | +199.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $116.86 | +178.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $81.78 | +95.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $91.66 | +118.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $117.83 | +181.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $68.71 | +63.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $117.27 | +179.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $71.69 | +71.1% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $31 | $36 | $42 | $48 | $53 |
| Conservative (5%) | $32 | $37 | $43 | $49 | $55 |
| Base Case (-13.7%) | $26 | $31 | $35 | $40 | $45 |
| Bull Case (-18%) | $25 | $29 | $34 | $38 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.06 | 9.88 | 5.46 | 13.17 | 2.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.85 | 10.53 | 9.23 | 13.65 | 1.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.69 | 7.60 | 6.37 | 9.93 | 1.12 |
| P/FCF | 17.90 | 11.48 | 8.19 | 43.09 | 14.41 |
| P/FFO | 5.43 | 5.03 | 3.78 | 7.55 | 1.34 |
| P/TBV | 9.14 | 10.37 | 4.00 | 13.04 | 4.65 |
| P/AFFO | 23.56 | 18.11 | 6.27 | 42.93 | 16.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.10 | 1.67 | 0.96 | 5.07 | 1.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates KOP's fair value at $71.69 vs the current price of $41.91, implying +71.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $71.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.89 (P10) to $96.14 (P90), with a median of $77.77.
KOP's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 25.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -39.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover KOP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $55.00 (range: $55.00 — $55.00), implying +31.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KOP trades at the 800th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KOP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5690.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.