MODEL VERDICT
Kearny Financial Corp. (KRNY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $8.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $7.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $8.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $7.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $8.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $6.45 | -20.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $11.50 | +41.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $11.55 | +42.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $14.51 | +78.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $6.42 | -21.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $6.57 | -19.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.12 | +12.2% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Conservative (5%) | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Base Case (-5.3%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.17 | 17.43 | 10.68 | 30.07 | 6.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.91 | 35.64 | 16.46 | 50.13 | 13.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.47 | 32.06 | 15.35 | 43.31 | 11.54 |
| P/FCF | 24.27 | 15.60 | 8.52 | 66.11 | 21.21 |
| P/FFO | 16.08 | 15.30 | 9.70 | 26.47 | 5.76 |
| P/TBV | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.69 | 1.38 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 17.78 | 16.87 | 10.10 | 30.39 | 7.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.59 | 1.12 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.92 | 3.00 | 1.35 | 5.02 | 1.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates KRNY's fair value at $9.12 vs the current price of $8.13, implying +12.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.43 (P10) to $10.22 (P90), with a median of $9.28.
KRNY's current P/E of 19.4x compares to the industry median of 15.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +26.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.2x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
5 analysts cover KRNY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.50 (range: $9.50 — $9.50), implying +16.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KRNY trades at the 8910th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KRNY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4600.0% to approximately $12. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.