MODEL VERDICT
Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $266.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $272.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $274.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $268.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $259.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $306.47 | +15.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $88.97 | -66.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $93.98 | -64.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $142.38 | -46.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $100.90 | -62.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $157.25 | -40.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $66.25 | -75.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $52.40 | -80.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $77.78 | -70.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $143.39 | -46.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $259.34 | -2.5% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $235 | $256 | $277 | $299 | $320 |
| Conservative (7%) | $240 | $262 | $284 | $306 | $328 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $248 | $271 | $293 | $316 | $339 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $256 | $279 | $303 | $326 | $349 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 135.46 | 52.22 | 36.04 | 318.10 | 158.38 |
| P/FFO | 95.98 | 48.60 | 34.93 | 204.41 | 94.15 |
| P/TBV | 4.30 | 4.34 | 2.62 | 6.05 | 1.06 |
| P/AFFO | 256.81 | 50.84 | 37.03 | 682.57 | 368.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.30 | 4.34 | 2.62 | 6.05 | 1.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 34.31 | 18.98 | 16.04 | 67.91 | 29.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates KRYS's fair value at $259.34 vs the current price of $266.04, implying -2.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $259.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $143.11 (P10) to $314.27 (P90), with a median of $212.65.
KRYS's current P/E of 38.9x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +183.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 135.5x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover KRYS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $332.75 (range: $310.00 — $371.00), implying +25.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 52.6% is 17.7 percentage points above the 3-year average (34.9%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$614. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KRYS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (34.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13090.0% to approximately $614. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.