MODEL VERDICT
Laureate Education, Inc. (LAUR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $31.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $30.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $33.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $33.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $29.06 | -7.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $41.55 | +33.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $33.36 | +6.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $21.76 | -30.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $24.96 | -20.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $18.58 | -40.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $11.37 | -63.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $16.17 | -48.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $33.23 | +6.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $21.45 | -31.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.81 | +91.5% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $26 | $29 | $33 | $37 | $41 |
| Conservative (7%) | $26 | $30 | $34 | $38 | $42 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $27 | $31 | $35 | $40 | $44 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $28 | $32 | $36 | $41 | $45 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 71.46 | 18.53 | 9.53 | 285.41 | 119.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 213.06 | 9.65 | 7.28 | 1026.19 | 454.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.52 | 8.55 | 6.02 | 18.25 | 5.33 |
| P/FCF | 16.57 | 17.01 | 11.14 | 22.33 | 4.07 |
| P/FFO | 8.38 | 8.62 | 3.12 | 12.76 | 3.41 |
| P/TBV | 13.15 | 11.39 | 2.08 | 39.81 | 13.18 |
| P/AFFO | 11.19 | 11.30 | 3.61 | 17.30 | 5.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.33 | 2.09 | 1.35 | 4.21 | 0.99 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.26 | 2.14 | 1.30 | 3.22 | 0.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LAUR's fair value at $59.81 vs the current price of $31.24, implying +91.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.93 (P10) to $130.45 (P90), with a median of $63.74.
LAUR's current P/E of 16.5x compares to the industry median of 17.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -6.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 71.5x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover LAUR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $39.00 (range: $36.50 — $43.00), implying +24.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LAUR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.