MODEL VERDICT
Lazard Ltd (LAZ) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $50.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $51.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $52.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $56.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $51.53 | Below threshold | +10.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $73.72 | +45.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $25.99 | -48.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $15.48 | -69.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $115.50 | +128.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $74.56 | +47.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $54.02 | +6.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.91 | -7.3% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $41 | $46 | $52 | $57 | $63 |
| Conservative (5%) | $42 | $48 | $53 | $59 | $65 |
| Base Case (1.9%) | $41 | $46 | $52 | $57 | $63 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $41 | $47 | $52 | $58 | $63 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.65 | 10.91 | 9.09 | 19.21 | 4.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.32 | 8.62 | 6.91 | 12.97 | 2.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.15 | 9.28 | 6.93 | 14.55 | 3.21 |
| P/FCF | 9.26 | 7.38 | 4.46 | 22.71 | 6.12 |
| P/FFO | 11.31 | 9.84 | 8.49 | 16.66 | 3.43 |
| P/TBV | 10.10 | 8.05 | 3.89 | 17.70 | 5.55 |
| P/AFFO | 12.91 | 11.40 | 9.31 | 19.46 | 4.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.95 | 4.94 | 2.78 | 6.89 | 1.63 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.56 | 1.67 | 1.21 | 1.82 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates LAZ's fair value at $46.91 vs the current price of $50.60, implying -7.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.18 (P10) to $56.93 (P90), with a median of $48.32.
LAZ's current P/E of 18.9x compares to the industry median of 27.5x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -31.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover LAZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $54.67 (range: $46.00 — $59.00), implying +8.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (12), Hold (11), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LAZ trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (12.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LAZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1700.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.