MODEL VERDICT
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $949.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $881.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $894.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $824.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $897.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $487.06 | -48.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $69.26 | -92.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $12.43 | -98.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $248.52 | -73.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $269.39 | -71.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $28.58 | -97.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $200.45 | -78.9% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 2157× | 2362× | 2567× (Current) | 2772× | 2977× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $814 | $891 | $969 | $1046 | $1124 |
| Conservative (5%) | $838 | $918 | $997 | $1077 | $1157 |
| Base Case (-26.7%) | $585 | $641 | $696 | $752 | $807 |
| Bull Case (-36%) | $510 | $558 | $607 | $655 | $704 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 277.32 | 46.82 | 19.47 | 996.19 | 479.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 520.20 | 30.70 | 14.33 | 2005.07 | 989.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 85.62 | 30.41 | 9.60 | 362.16 | 136.85 |
| P/FCF | 28.69 | 16.78 | 10.52 | 69.79 | 24.82 |
| P/FFO | 36.74 | 25.67 | 10.58 | 90.78 | 28.97 |
| P/TBV | 8.19 | 6.92 | 2.87 | 17.77 | 5.65 |
| P/AFFO | 142.80 | 29.96 | 14.09 | 497.17 | 236.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.45 | 3.98 | 2.06 | 22.61 | 7.23 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.23 | 4.16 | 2.03 | 15.60 | 4.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates LITE's fair value at $200.45 vs the current price of $949.93, implying -78.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $200.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $319.95 (P10) to $471.62 (P90), with a median of $394.63.
LITE's current P/E of 2567.4x compares to the industry median of 33.6x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +7543.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 277.3x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover LITE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $643.18 (range: $240.00 — $1270.00), implying -32.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (16), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LITE trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (277.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LITE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.