MODEL VERDICT
Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $55.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $47.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $44.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $39.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $41.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $34.84 | -37.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $21.26 | -61.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $9.04 | -83.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $6.66 | -88.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $15.44 | -72.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $5.47 | -90.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $4.64 | -91.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $42.91 | -22.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $42.70 | -22.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $11.57 | -79.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $6.65 | -88.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.05 | -67.4% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 309× | 339× | 369× (Current) | 399× | 429× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $47 | $52 | $56 | $61 | $66 |
| Conservative (5%) | $49 | $53 | $58 | $63 | $68 |
| Base Case (4.6%) | $48 | $53 | $58 | $63 | $67 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $64 | $68 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 167.07 | 121.80 | 60.76 | 445.10 | 140.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 40.74 | 30.41 | 28.32 | 62.55 | 15.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.48 | 18.28 | 10.31 | 32.12 | 6.96 |
| P/FCF | 34.36 | 33.75 | 21.78 | 64.87 | 14.93 |
| P/FFO | 34.40 | 27.54 | 24.02 | 68.34 | 16.08 |
| P/TBV | 24.55 | 14.90 | 10.89 | 76.03 | 23.30 |
| P/AFFO | 75.73 | 51.98 | 33.46 | 167.78 | 53.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.38 | 4.78 | 3.30 | 5.45 | 0.91 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.80 | 3.07 | 1.94 | 3.71 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates VIAV's fair value at $18.05 vs the current price of $55.33, implying -67.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.03 (P10) to $24.99 (P90), with a median of $20.03.
VIAV's current P/E of 368.9x compares to the industry median of 60.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +511.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 167.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover VIAV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.25 (range: $24.00 — $50.00), implying -41.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: VIAV trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (167.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VIAV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.