MODEL VERDICT
Lakeland Financial Corporation (LKFN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $61.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $59.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $61.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $59.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $60.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $53.92 | -12.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $34.79 | -43.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $47.05 | -23.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $66.84 | +8.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $53.92 | -12.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $46.71 | -23.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.78 | -7.5% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $45 | $53 | $61 | $70 | $78 |
| Conservative (5%) | $46 | $55 | $63 | $72 | $80 |
| Base Case (4.0%) | $46 | $54 | $63 | $71 | $79 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $46 | $55 | $63 | $72 | $80 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.32 | 17.85 | 14.23 | 21.43 | 2.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.43 | 12.72 | 11.61 | 16.32 | 1.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.71 | 12.25 | 10.89 | 15.48 | 1.59 |
| P/FCF | 15.65 | 15.52 | 11.40 | 19.08 | 2.82 |
| P/FFO | 16.20 | 16.77 | 13.48 | 19.72 | 2.29 |
| P/TBV | 2.52 | 2.60 | 1.94 | 3.33 | 0.50 |
| P/AFFO | 17.43 | 17.74 | 14.74 | 20.96 | 2.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.50 | 2.58 | 1.93 | 3.30 | 0.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.46 | 5.05 | 3.49 | 8.63 | 1.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates LKFN's fair value at $56.78 vs the current price of $61.38, implying -7.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.17 (P10) to $62.73 (P90), with a median of $58.35.
LKFN's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 13.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +13.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
10 analysts cover LKFN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $66.00 (range: $66.00 — $66.00), implying +7.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LKFN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (31.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4450.0% to approximately $89. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.