MODEL VERDICT
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $300.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $319.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $334.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $360.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $359.82 | Below threshold | +9.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $288.00 | -4.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $235.19 | -21.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $297.32 | -1.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $351.16 | +16.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $309.64 | +3.1% | 100% | 75 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $276 | $299 | $322 | $345 | $368 |
| Conservative (9%) | $285 | $308 | $332 | $356 | $380 |
| Base Case (13.3%) | $297 | $322 | $346 | $371 | $396 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $309 | $335 | $360 | $386 | $412 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.94 | 20.79 | 13.94 | 32.71 | 6.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.41 | 15.89 | 11.32 | 22.16 | 4.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.24 | 11.22 | 9.52 | 16.28 | 2.30 |
| P/FCF | 51.59 | 16.70 | 10.72 | 162.11 | 64.39 |
| P/FFO | 15.14 | 15.51 | 10.83 | 18.95 | 3.19 |
| P/AFFO | 20.55 | 19.34 | 13.83 | 27.57 | 5.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.45 | 7.83 | 5.28 | 8.52 | 1.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.71 | 1.69 | 1.39 | 2.04 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates LPLA's fair value at $309.64 vs the current price of $300.38, implying +3.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $309.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $266.25 (P10) to $369.58 (P90), with a median of $314.47.
LPLA's current P/E of 27.5x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +4.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
22 analysts cover LPLA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $459.17 (range: $421.00 — $500.00), implying +52.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LPLA trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LPLA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3010.0% to approximately $391. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.