Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD)
Valuation Overview•Is Lightspeed Commerce Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Moderate quality score of 47/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
LSPD struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($437M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (18.9% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-12.4%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $286.8M | +14.0% | +18.9% | +40.8% | +39.9% | |
| EBITDA | $3.7M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$28.2M | +78.4% | +48.7% | — | -9.5% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.20 | +76.3% | — | — | -3.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$8.0M | +225.9% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 36.8% | 42.4% | 44.4% | 54.8% |
| Operating Margin | -12.4% | -33.0% | -61.5% | -56.3% |
| Net Margin | -11.8% | -30.6% | -58.2% | -93.4% |
| FCF Margin | 3.2% | -4.1% | -9.8% | -18.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.10 | $0.08 | -20.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.12 | $0.15 | +25.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.11 | $0.16 | +45.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.11 | $0.06 | -45.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.10 | $0.10 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.10 | $0.12 | +20.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.10 | $0.13 | +30.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.06 | $0.10 | +66.7% |
Total return is -16.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -41.1%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -19.9% | -29.2% | — |
| 1Y | -16.1% | -41.1% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -16.0% | -35.8% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -34.8% | -47.0% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -11.8% | -25.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD) valuation, health, and returns.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +163.7% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $24.79)
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $24.79 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $9.71 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $11.56 (implying +23.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 47/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.8 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -10.2%.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 8.9% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -9.4% in the last 12 months.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +14.0% 1Y revenue growth and +76.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +18.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 15 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +23.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Lightspeed Commerce Inc. include: -39.5% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.49x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.49x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.