MODEL VERDICT
Lyell Immunopharma, Inc. (LYEL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $19.33 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $20.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $22.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $24.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $23.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $0.79 | -95.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $0.01 | -99.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.17 | -88.8% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.27 | 1.03 | 0.44 | 2.12 | 0.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.27 | 1.03 | 0.44 | 2.12 | 0.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 4257.98 | 2743.40 | 10.12 | 14614.51 | 6010.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates LYEL's fair value at $2.17 vs the current price of $19.33, implying -88.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
LYEL's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 20.1x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -106.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover LYEL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $46.00 (range: $44.00 — $49.00), implying +138.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LYEL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.