ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN)
Valuation Overview•Is ManpowerGroup Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 17/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
MAN struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-3.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (0.8%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.7B | +0.6% | -3.2% | -0.0% | -0.7% | |
| EBITDA | $101.1M | — | -24.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $30.2M | -109.2% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.64 | -109.6% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $168.0M | -162.5% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 16.7% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 16.8% |
| Operating Margin | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% |
| Net Margin | -0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| FCF Margin | -0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.50 | $0.51 | +2.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.83 | $0.92 | +10.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.82 | $0.83 | +1.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.69 | $0.78 | +13.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.52 | $0.44 | -15.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.01 | $1.02 | +1.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.28 | $1.29 | +0.8% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.28 | $1.30 | +1.6% |
Total return is -12.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -37.1%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +14.0% | +4.7% | — |
| 1Y | -12.1% | -37.1% | +3.6% |
| 3YCAGR | -19.4% | -38.5% | +8.7% |
| 5YCAGR | -16.6% | -29.3% | +10.7% |
| 10YCAGR | -2.9% | -16.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) valuation, health, and returns.
ManpowerGroup Inc. is estimated to be fairly valued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $0.00)
ManpowerGroup Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $0.00 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $76.13 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $37.86 (implying +12.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
ManpowerGroup Inc. displays poor financial health with a composite quality score of 17/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.6 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.6%.
ManpowerGroup Inc. pays a 4.3% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.5% buyback yield.
ManpowerGroup Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +0.6% 1Y revenue growth and -109.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -3.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 29 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +12.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for ManpowerGroup Inc. include: -43.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.55x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.