MODEL VERDICT
ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $30.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $29.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $31.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $30.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $26.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $47.63 | +56.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $30.51 | -0.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $29.60 | -3.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $275.31 | +802.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $288.02 | +843.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.80 | +95.9% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 53.79 | 16.64 | 11.75 | 219.95 | 82.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.84 | 10.12 | 8.47 | 27.43 | 6.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.77 | 8.95 | 6.86 | 14.08 | 2.37 |
| P/FCF | 10.20 | 10.04 | 5.94 | 14.83 | 3.26 |
| P/FFO | 19.77 | 12.03 | 9.58 | 52.52 | 15.21 |
| P/TBV | 21.44 | 16.18 | 4.75 | 48.26 | 16.00 |
| P/AFFO | 41.34 | 15.44 | 11.48 | 106.43 | 40.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.71 | 1.79 | 0.67 | 2.14 | 0.54 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates MAN's fair value at $59.80 vs the current price of $30.52, implying +95.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.16 (P10) to $79.71 (P90), with a median of $62.30.
MAN's current P/E of -105.2x compares to the industry median of 16.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -725.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 53.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover MAN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $37.86 (range: $30.00 — $45.00), implying +24.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MAN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.