MODEL VERDICT
MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $9.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $9.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $9.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $9.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $21.20 | +133.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $28.78 | +216.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $12.21 | +34.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $12.29 | +35.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $24.16 | +165.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $12.35 | +35.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $46.71 | +413.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $52.97 | +482.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $11.56 | +27.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $12.34 | +35.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.64 | +357.6% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 197.04 | 72.41 | 13.34 | 505.35 | 268.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 71.33 | 37.99 | 11.95 | 197.38 | 87.06 |
| P/FCF | 20.80 | 19.69 | 13.13 | 33.81 | 8.42 |
| P/FFO | 41.43 | 29.95 | 25.69 | 68.64 | 23.66 |
| P/AFFO | 42.02 | 30.31 | 25.97 | 69.77 | 24.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.22 | 1.11 | 0.69 | 2.15 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates MAX's fair value at $41.64 vs the current price of $9.10, implying +357.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.59 (P10) to $68.18 (P90), with a median of $43.02.
MAX's current P/E of 23.3x compares to the industry median of 31.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -25.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
9 analysts cover MAX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.25 (range: $11.00 — $11.50), implying +23.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MAX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.