MODEL VERDICT
MBIA Inc. (MBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $6.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $6.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $5.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $5.96 | Pending | -2.2% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $6.56 | Pending | -9.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $7.99 | +31.4% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.23 | +84.7% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 9.57 | 4.41 | 1.38 | 42.15 | 14.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates MBI's fair value at $11.23 vs the current price of $6.08, implying +84.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
MBI's current P/E of -1.7x compares to the industry median of 9.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -117.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover MBI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying +130.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (4), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MBI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.