MBIA Inc. (MBI)
Valuation Overview•Is MBIA Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Moderate quality score of 46/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
MBI struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-19.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-177.8%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.0M | +90.5% | -19.6% | -22.3% | -21.1% | |
| EBITDA | $6.0M | — | -20.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$40.0M | +60.1% | +4.5% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.80 | +61.9% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$33.0M | +121.6% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 37.8% | -944.2% | -577.3% | -298.4% |
| Operating Margin | -177.8% | -2730.2% | -1713.3% | -936.5% |
| Net Margin | -172.2% | -2745.2% | -1729.4% | -967.9% |
| FCF Margin | 53.3% | -1052.4% | -621.6% | -375.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.11 | $-0.16 | -45.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.10 | $-0.24 | -140.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.03 | $-0.15 | -400.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.08 | $-0.17 | -112.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.07 | $-0.16 | -128.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.31 | $-0.48 | -54.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.33 | $-1.17 | -256.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.09 | $-2.90 | -3122.2% |
Total return is +44.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +19.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -12.1% | -21.4% | — |
| 1Y | +44.4% | +19.4% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +37.5% | +18.0% | +188.5% |
| 5YCAGR | +16.7% | +4.1% | +156.7% |
| 10YCAGR | +12.6% | -1.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about MBIA Inc. (MBI) valuation, health, and returns.
MBIA Inc. valuation is being assessed using available models.
MBIA Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Wall Street Analyst Target: $14.00 (implying +130.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
MBIA Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 46/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -12.9%.
MBIA Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 2.3% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +3.9% in the last 12 months.
MBIA Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +90.5% 1Y revenue growth and +61.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -19.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 6 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 0% of recent quarters with a -12-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +130.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for MBIA Inc. include: -31.5% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.31x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.