MODEL VERDICT
Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $51.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $50.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $53.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $53.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $53.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $67.94 | +30.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $62.15 | +19.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $59.67 | +14.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $47.84 | -7.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $67.90 | +30.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $62.42 | +20.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.91 | +17.2% | 100% | 97 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $35 | $46 | $58 | $69 | $81 |
| Conservative (10%) | $36 | $48 | $60 | $72 | $84 |
| Base Case (15.0%) | $38 | $50 | $63 | $75 | $88 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $39 | $53 | $66 | $79 | $92 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.43 | 9.02 | 7.87 | 12.12 | 1.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.48 | 11.12 | 3.77 | 14.36 | 3.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.28 | 10.66 | 3.18 | 12.40 | 3.54 |
| P/FCF | 19.54 | 10.79 | 4.54 | 69.79 | 22.67 |
| P/FFO | 8.08 | 7.97 | 6.90 | 10.14 | 1.06 |
| P/TBV | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.13 | 1.65 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 9.17 | 8.80 | 7.43 | 13.15 | 1.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.00 | 1.44 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.43 | 2.28 | 1.98 | 3.23 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MBWM's fair value at $60.91 vs the current price of $51.96, implying +17.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.58 (P10) to $61.59 (P90), with a median of $58.55.
MBWM's current P/E of 9.5x compares to the industry median of 12.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -23.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.4x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
7 analysts cover MBWM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $57.00 (range: $57.00 — $57.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MBWM trades at the 1220th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MBWM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 710.0% to approximately $56. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.