MODEL VERDICT
Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. (MCB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $96.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $90.85 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $89.52 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $91.21 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $87.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $94.87 | -1.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $84.67 | -12.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $95.89 | -0.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $9.80 | -89.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $95.83 | -0.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $113.96 | +17.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $87.48 | -9.5% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $75 | $89 | $102 | $116 | $129 |
| Conservative (5%) | $76 | $90 | $104 | $118 | $132 |
| Base Case (7.3%) | $78 | $92 | $107 | $121 | $135 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $80 | $94 | $109 | $124 | $138 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.19 | 11.09 | 7.78 | 16.52 | 3.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.83 | 6.78 | 4.51 | 9.42 | 2.09 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.82 | 6.17 | 4.51 | 10.67 | 2.51 |
| P/FCF | 12.43 | 9.95 | 3.65 | 29.68 | 8.84 |
| P/FFO | 10.56 | 10.70 | 6.91 | 15.05 | 3.21 |
| P/TBV | 1.17 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 1.81 | 0.33 |
| P/AFFO | 12.21 | 12.83 | 7.59 | 16.15 | 3.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.10 | 0.89 | 1.77 | 0.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.36 | 1.90 | 1.34 | 5.01 | 1.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCB's fair value at $87.48 vs the current price of $96.63, implying -9.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $87.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $74.00 (P10) to $88.23 (P90), with a median of $80.97.
MCB's current P/E of 14.6x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +1.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
4 analysts cover MCB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $97.00 (range: $97.00 — $97.00), implying +0.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MCB trades at the 6100th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MCB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1590.0% to approximately $112. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.