MODEL VERDICT
Mercury General Corporation (MCY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $96.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $96.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $96.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $93.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $92.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $107.21 | +11.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $89.47 | -7.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $95.45 | -0.9% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $69.41 | -27.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $107.21 | +11.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $104.05 | +8.1% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $146.00 | +51.7% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $125.62 | +30.5% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $97.04 | +0.8% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $60 | $81 | $101 | $121 | $141 |
| Conservative (5%) | $62 | $82 | $103 | $123 | $144 |
| Base Case (7.6%) | $63 | $84 | $105 | $126 | $147 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $65 | $86 | $108 | $129 | $151 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.15 | 9.03 | 7.71 | 21.44 | 5.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.70 | 6.80 | 5.86 | 17.01 | 4.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.29 | 6.21 | 5.47 | 12.25 | 2.59 |
| P/FCF | 5.26 | 5.11 | 3.71 | 6.39 | 0.86 |
| P/FFO | 8.34 | 7.73 | 6.52 | 12.26 | 2.15 |
| P/TBV | 1.60 | 1.46 | 1.29 | 2.20 | 0.34 |
| P/AFFO | 9.62 | 8.58 | 7.17 | 15.68 | 3.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.56 | 1.42 | 1.24 | 2.16 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.67 | 0.68 | 0.45 | 0.87 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates MCY's fair value at $97.04 vs the current price of $96.27, implying +0.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $97.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $82.39 (P10) to $105.62 (P90), with a median of $94.06.
MCY's current P/E of 9.9x compares to the industry median of 11.0x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -10.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.2x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
7 analysts cover MCY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $90.00 (range: $90.00 — $90.00), implying -6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (0), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MCY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4670.0% to approximately $51. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.