MODEL VERDICT
MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $22.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $21.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $21.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $21.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $22.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $18.97 | -16.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $19.80 | -12.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $32.27 | +42.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $15.01 | -33.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $32.93 | +45.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $27.54 | +21.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $32.27 | +42.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.15 | -19.7% | 100% | 63 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $20 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
| Base Case (-4.1%) | $16 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $26 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $16 | $18 | $21 | $23 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.07 | 6.36 | 5.13 | 13.15 | 2.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.44 | 10.51 | 7.58 | 23.45 | 5.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.09 | 9.79 | 5.22 | 12.73 | 3.19 |
| P/FCF | 89.43 | 34.73 | 9.54 | 224.00 | 117.22 |
| P/FFO | 4.29 | 3.79 | 2.97 | 7.66 | 1.54 |
| P/TBV | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.76 | 1.57 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 47.10 | 25.99 | 17.12 | 145.57 | 55.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 1.37 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.93 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 2.10 | 0.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates MDU's fair value at $18.15 vs the current price of $22.60, implying -19.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.22 (P10) to $20.97 (P90), with a median of $19.02.
MDU's current P/E of 16.5x compares to the industry median of 23.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -30.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
17 analysts cover MDU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $21.00 — $21.00), implying -7.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MDU trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MDU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3710.0% to approximately $14. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.