MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)
Valuation Overview•Is MDU Resources Group, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Fragile underlying quality score of 31/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral with steady expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
MDU struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 16.2% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $606.0M | +6.7% | +2.4% | -19.5% | -7.7% | |
| EBITDA | $169.9M | — | +8.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $80.8M | -32.3% | -19.7% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.39 | -32.1% | -19.9% | -13.8% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $56.8M | -1453.7% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 28.2% | 27.6% | 26.2% | 22.2% |
| Operating Margin | 16.2% | 14.4% | 12.8% | 11.1% |
| Net Margin | 10.5% | 16.4% | 16.2% | 10.8% |
| FCF Margin | -21.4% | -9.5% | -4.9% | -1.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.42 | $0.39 | -7.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.37 | $0.37 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.07 | $0.09 | +28.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.13 | $0.07 | -46.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.36 | $0.40 | +11.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.31 | $0.34 | +9.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.26 | $0.32 | +23.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.22 | $0.32 | +45.5% |
Total return is +35.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +10.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +8.6% | -0.7% | — |
| 1Y | +35.4% | +10.4% | +3.5% |
| 3YCAGR | +26.2% | +5.9% | +11.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +14.9% | +1.4% | +17.2% |
| 10YCAGR | +10.8% | -2.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) valuation, health, and returns.
MDU Resources Group, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +45.9% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $31.06)
MDU Resources Group, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $31.06 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $16.01 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $21.00 (implying -1.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
MDU Resources Group, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 31/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.4 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.2%.
MDU Resources Group, Inc. pays a 2.5% dividend yield, covered by a 57% payout ratio with 37 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +6.7% 1Y revenue growth and -32.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +2.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 18 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -1.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for MDU Resources Group, Inc. include: -10.5% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.36x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.