MODEL VERDICT
Magyar Bancorp, Inc. (MGYR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $23.13 | +27.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $24.43 | +34.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $28.91 | +58.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $12.01 | -34.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $23.13 | +27.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.53 | +23.8% | 100% | 87 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $14 | $18 | $21 | $25 | $28 |
| Conservative (21%) | $15 | $19 | $23 | $26 | $30 |
| Base Case (32.6%) | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 | $33 |
| Bull Case (44%) | $18 | $22 | $27 | $31 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.71 | 11.87 | 9.36 | 20.79 | 4.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.38 | 8.61 | 2.56 | 17.34 | 5.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.13 | 7.97 | 2.33 | 14.40 | 4.65 |
| P/FCF | 18.80 | 10.31 | 8.04 | 68.26 | 22.01 |
| P/FFO | 11.43 | 10.66 | 8.44 | 15.30 | 2.63 |
| P/TBV | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.69 | 1.08 | 0.13 |
| P/AFFO | 12.02 | 11.35 | 8.76 | 15.72 | 2.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.69 | 1.08 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.01 | 1.84 | 1.61 | 2.70 | 0.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates MGYR's fair value at $22.53 vs the current price of $18.20, implying +23.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.34 (P10) to $23.46 (P90), with a median of $21.33.
MGYR's current P/E of 11.7x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -21.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for MGYR.
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MGYR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.