MODEL VERDICT
MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $192.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $181.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $179.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $177.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $168.77 | Pending | +1.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $200.25 | +4.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $128.25 | -33.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $119.45 | -37.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $196.96 | +2.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $202.53 | +5.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $120.68 | -37.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $265.71 | +38.4% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $164 | $179 | $194 | $209 | $224 |
| Conservative (5%) | $168 | $183 | $199 | $214 | $229 |
| Base Case (6.2%) | $170 | $186 | $201 | $216 | $232 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $173 | $189 | $205 | $221 | $237 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.23 | 46.24 | 31.05 | 72.68 | 15.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.63 | 35.65 | 22.21 | 56.98 | 13.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.97 | 32.99 | 19.09 | 51.24 | 12.30 |
| P/FCF | 48.86 | 45.37 | 22.69 | 67.69 | 15.73 |
| P/FFO | 43.47 | 40.83 | 24.01 | 63.60 | 14.92 |
| P/TBV | 19.40 | 20.34 | 8.08 | 30.55 | 8.66 |
| P/AFFO | 49.73 | 53.92 | 24.70 | 70.94 | 17.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.72 | 15.05 | 6.13 | 22.79 | 6.74 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 20.03 | 18.36 | 10.42 | 31.58 | 7.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates MKTX's fair value at $265.71 vs the current price of $192.00, implying +38.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $265.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $223.37 (P10) to $332.08 (P90), with a median of $276.49.
MKTX's current P/E of 26.4x compares to the industry median of 27.5x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -4.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 52.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
23 analysts cover MKTX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $190.33 (range: $164.00 — $225.00), implying -0.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (15), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MKTX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (37.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12160.0% to approximately $425. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.