MODEL VERDICT
MillerKnoll, Inc. (MLKN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $16.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $17.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $17.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $16.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $15.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $19.48 | +20.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $21.20 | +30.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $1.29 | -92.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $33.63 | +107.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $41.60 | +156.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $26.11 | +61.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.38 | +13.4% | 100% | 74 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.40 | 17.89 | 13.33 | 48.51 | 16.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.05 | 17.61 | 10.12 | 112.10 | 39.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.71 | 9.94 | 5.43 | 15.07 | 3.59 |
| P/FCF | 14.20 | 12.72 | 6.10 | 25.48 | 7.20 |
| P/FFO | 12.72 | 10.29 | 7.04 | 30.59 | 8.04 |
| P/TBV | 9.43 | 7.81 | 6.47 | 14.01 | 4.02 |
| P/AFFO | 15.92 | 17.42 | 10.51 | 22.34 | 4.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.88 | 1.32 | 0.94 | 3.34 | 1.00 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 0.96 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates MLKN's fair value at $18.38 vs the current price of $16.21, implying +13.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.60 (P10) to $16.35 (P90), with a median of $13.86.
MLKN's current P/E of -30.6x compares to the industry median of 17.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -278.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.4x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover MLKN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MLKN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.