MODEL VERDICT
MainStreet Bancshares, Inc. (MNSB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $26.09 | +15.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $36.60 | +61.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $43.47 | +91.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $26.09 | +15.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $23.00 | +1.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.89 | +22.9% | 100% | 85 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $16 | $20 | $23 | $27 | $31 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $20 | $24 | $28 | $31 |
| Base Case (-1.0%) | $16 | $19 | $23 | $26 | $30 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $16 | $19 | $23 | $26 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.94 | 9.21 | 7.63 | 13.61 | 2.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.73 | 6.10 | 3.30 | 11.05 | 3.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.21 | 5.63 | 3.30 | 9.99 | 2.83 |
| P/FCF | 9.83 | 8.39 | 7.28 | 15.38 | 3.23 |
| P/FFO | 8.15 | 7.58 | 6.36 | 12.03 | 2.23 |
| P/TBV | 0.94 | 0.90 | 0.66 | 1.38 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 8.63 | 8.18 | 6.47 | 12.83 | 2.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 1.38 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.93 | 1.98 | 1.00 | 2.98 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates MNSB's fair value at $27.89 vs the current price of $22.68, implying +22.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.78 (P10) to $31.08 (P90), with a median of $28.41.
MNSB's current P/E of 12.9x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -13.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.9x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
1 analysts cover MNSB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MNSB trades at the 2900th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MNSB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.