MODEL VERDICT
Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $78.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $77.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $84.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $85.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $79.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $18.69 | -76.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $36.12 | -54.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $36.46 | -53.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $33.84 | -56.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $28.13 | -64.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $36.12 | -54.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.26 | -55.1% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 59.20 | 56.45 | 49.16 | 71.99 | 11.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 40.65 | 39.01 | 33.49 | 49.44 | 8.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 37.99 | 33.74 | 21.76 | 74.11 | 18.82 |
| P/FCF | 50.10 | 47.32 | 20.37 | 79.27 | 23.68 |
| P/FFO | 43.24 | 35.96 | 23.65 | 97.21 | 26.91 |
| P/TBV | 8.79 | 8.53 | 6.26 | 13.21 | 2.37 |
| P/AFFO | 75.53 | 56.25 | 30.10 | 176.36 | 52.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.24 | 2.06 | 1.32 | 3.50 | 0.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.83 | 3.31 | 2.12 | 6.09 | 1.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates MRCY's fair value at $35.26 vs the current price of $78.55, implying -55.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.28 (P10) to $34.23 (P90), with a median of $27.25.
MRCY's current P/E of -120.8x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -625.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 59.2x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover MRCY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $92.67 (range: $55.00 — $109.00), implying +18.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MRCY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.