MODEL VERDICT
Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $40.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $39.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $44.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $46.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $46.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $31.56 | -21.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $33.70 | -15.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $20.12 | -49.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $19.52 | -51.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $30.16 | -24.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $23.85 | -40.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $28.56 | -28.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $41.92 | +4.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $35.89 | -10.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $25.85 | -35.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $19.46 | -51.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.54 | -33.7% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $49 |
| Conservative (8%) | $37 | $40 | $43 | $47 | $50 |
| Base Case (12.6%) | $38 | $42 | $45 | $49 | $52 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $40 | $43 | $47 | $51 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.08 | 17.11 | 6.80 | 40.39 | 13.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.86 | 10.96 | 5.24 | 29.86 | 10.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.07 | 8.25 | 4.68 | 22.16 | 7.39 |
| P/FCF | 27.25 | 28.83 | 7.38 | 46.50 | 16.16 |
| P/FFO | 14.70 | 10.58 | 5.85 | 28.45 | 9.72 |
| P/TBV | 5.17 | 5.18 | 2.91 | 7.29 | 1.68 |
| P/AFFO | 21.51 | 17.81 | 6.78 | 39.50 | 14.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.85 | 1.29 | 0.74 | 3.38 | 1.16 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.34 | 1.02 | 0.28 | 2.67 | 1.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DRS's fair value at $26.54 vs the current price of $40.03, implying -33.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.23 (P10) to $32.63 (P90), with a median of $26.85.
DRS's current P/E of 38.9x compares to the industry median of 19.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +98.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover DRS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $53.00 (range: $47.00 — $59.00), implying +32.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DRS trades at the 4860th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DRS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3130.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.