MODEL VERDICT
Materialise N.V. (MTLS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $5.77 | Pending | -2.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $2.63 | -49.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $10.51 | +102.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $6.06 | +17.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $1.68 | -67.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $5.08 | -1.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $2.59 | -50.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $19.83 | +282.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $17.19 | +231.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $15.59 | +201.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $6.72 | +29.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $1.68 | -67.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.25 | +136.4% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (20%) | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Conservative (33%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Base Case (51.0%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (69%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 230.04 | 99.46 | 30.61 | 624.91 | 251.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 169.32 | 108.73 | 37.65 | 529.20 | 186.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 53.50 | 38.45 | 11.37 | 192.69 | 63.34 |
| P/FCF | 110.03 | 89.01 | 46.23 | 234.70 | 66.08 |
| P/FFO | 62.63 | 40.26 | 11.81 | 229.05 | 76.15 |
| P/TBV | 9.28 | 7.45 | 2.38 | 28.97 | 9.33 |
| P/AFFO | 553.89 | 61.73 | 20.37 | 1333.56 | 703.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.12 | 5.83 | 1.64 | 17.75 | 5.65 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.63 | 5.03 | 1.52 | 16.97 | 5.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTLS's fair value at $12.25 vs the current price of $5.18, implying +136.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.74 (P10) to $18.99 (P90), with a median of $12.72.
MTLS's current P/E of 19.1x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -27.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 230.0x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
12 analysts cover MTLS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying +93.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MTLS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (1.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 86220.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.