MODEL VERDICT
Navient Corporation (NAVI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $8.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $13.00 | Pending | -22.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $13.81 | +57.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $39.73 | +352.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $30.76 | +249.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $20.16 | +129.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $14.57 | +65.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $5.80 | -34.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.96 | +127.1% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $6 | $8 | $11 | $13 |
| Conservative (5%) | $5 | $6 | $9 | $11 | $14 |
| Base Case (-14.3%) | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 | $11 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.57 | 5.34 | 3.67 | 11.26 | 2.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 158.58 | 158.12 | 82.50 | 284.01 | 71.10 |
| EV/EBITDA | 155.67 | 152.12 | 82.50 | 284.01 | 70.79 |
| P/FCF | 3.81 | 3.21 | 1.94 | 7.77 | 2.05 |
| P/FFO | 5.00 | 5.12 | 4.42 | 5.46 | 0.53 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.11 | 0.67 | 1.94 | 0.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 1.40 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.35 | 1.03 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NAVI's fair value at $19.96 vs the current price of $8.79, implying +127.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.19 (P10) to $24.97 (P90), with a median of $20.43.
NAVI's current P/E of 7.4x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -36.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover NAVI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $9.00 — $12.00), implying +13.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (15), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NAVI trades at the 2440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NAVI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20080.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.