MODEL VERDICT
New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.08 | CURRENT | -35.0% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.08 | Pending | -47.2% |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.09 | Pending | -36.5% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.22 | Pending | -46.7% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.22 | Pending | -43.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $9.73 | +800.9% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $1.54 | +42.6% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.31 | +1687.6% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.71 | 45.61 | 14.24 | 50.29 | 19.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.57 | 40.42 | 16.25 | 129.19 | 49.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.95 | 16.22 | 13.28 | 26.06 | 5.69 |
| P/FFO | 20.56 | 24.76 | 10.60 | 26.33 | 8.67 |
| P/TBV | 8.59 | 6.33 | 3.01 | 17.37 | 6.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.40 | 3.46 | 1.65 | 15.24 | 5.09 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.99 | 3.72 | 1.40 | 12.65 | 3.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates NFE's fair value at $19.31 vs the current price of $1.08, implying +1687.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.50 (P10) to $36.53 (P90), with a median of $18.76.
NFE's current P/E of -0.9x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -104.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover NFE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.25 (range: $4.00 — $44.00), implying +1312.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NFE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.