Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$96.24
→
Intrinsic$82.65
-14%
$54.86$82.65$137.86
Market implies 29% growth for 5 years
NFLX appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $96, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (29%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $55 → Bull $138. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $105 | $114 | $123 | $133 |
| 10% | $71 | $77 | $83 | $89 |
| 12% | $53 | $57 | $61 | $66 |
| 14% | $42 | $45 | $48 | $52 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($138) offers 43% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($55) implies 43% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$11.83B
Year 2$14.78B
Year 3$18.48B
Year 4$23.10B
Year 5$28.87B
Terminal$457.52B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$9.46BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.