MODEL VERDICT
National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $84.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $88.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $89.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $86.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $77.38 | Below threshold | +10.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $27533.90 | +32651.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $50.40 | -40.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $212.68 | +153.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $109.98 | +30.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $6910.91 | +8120.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $4662.93 | +5446.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24177.73 | +28659.0% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $74 | $80 | $86 | $92 | $99 |
| Conservative (5%) | $76 | $82 | $89 | $95 | $101 |
| Base Case (-0.1%) | $72 | $78 | $84 | $91 | $97 |
| Bull Case (-0%) | $72 | $78 | $84 | $91 | $97 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.14 | 25.29 | 17.84 | 102.39 | 29.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.20 | 22.52 | 18.62 | 32.15 | 4.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.61 | 15.58 | 14.21 | 17.03 | 1.27 |
| P/FCF | 14.04 | 13.41 | 12.47 | 15.97 | 1.33 |
| P/FFO | 11.94 | 13.65 | 0.02 | 17.04 | 5.59 |
| P/TBV | 2.01 | 1.97 | 1.73 | 2.38 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 14.32 | 14.27 | 11.53 | 17.63 | 2.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.06 | 2.03 | 1.73 | 2.38 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.14 | 9.12 | 7.58 | 11.20 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates NHI's fair value at $24177.73 vs the current price of $84.07, implying +28659.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24177.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13356.90 (P10) to $54782.82 (P90), with a median of $33924.17.
NHI's current P/E of 27.8x compares to the industry median of 70.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -60.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover NHI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $85.20 (range: $83.00 — $88.00), implying +1.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 380.5% is 348.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (32.0%), with a Z-score of +27.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$10. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NHI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +27.1σ, meaning margins are 27.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (32.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8850.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.