MODEL VERDICT
NIO Inc. (NIO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $4.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $5.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $4.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $4.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $4.64 | Pending | +5.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $39.75 | +716.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $34.98 | +618.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.62 | +693.0% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 0.96 | 0.75 | 0.53 | 1.82 | 0.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.74 | 0.52 | 1.81 | 0.51 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.08 | 0.53 | 0.14 | 3.55 | 1.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates NIO's fair value at $38.62 vs the current price of $4.87, implying +693.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.07 (P10) to $66.60 (P90), with a median of $38.86.
NIO's current P/E of -3.0x compares to the industry median of 17.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -117.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover NIO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.70 (range: $6.10 — $7.00), implying +37.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NIO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.