MODEL VERDICT
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $30.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $30.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $31.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $31.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $30.65 | Pending | +3.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $2516.16 | +8242.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $11610.36 | +38395.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $9272.95 | +30645.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $8935.22 | +29526.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $11462.93 | +37907.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $19053.60 | +63075.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $14348.70 | +47475.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $9437.93 | +31192.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8104.22 | +26770.8% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $2851 | $3992 | $5132 | $6273 | $7413 |
| Conservative (10%) | $2956 | $4138 | $5321 | $6503 | $7685 |
| Base Case (15.6%) | $3103 | $4344 | $5585 | $6826 | $8067 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $3248 | $4547 | $5846 | $7145 | $8444 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.87 | 4.96 | 3.04 | 6.15 | 1.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.21 | 2.26 | 1.88 | 2.58 | 0.27 |
| P/FCF | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.34 | 0.13 |
| P/FFO | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 4.64 | 4.07 | 2.95 | 7.58 | 1.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates HMC's fair value at $8104.22 vs the current price of $30.16, implying +26770.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8104.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4790.67 (P10) to $7939.83 (P90), with a median of $6320.65.
HMC's current P/E of 8.8x compares to the industry median of 17.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -49.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover HMC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $31.51 (range: $31.51 — $31.51), implying +4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: HMC trades at the 1430th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that HMC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.7σ, meaning margins are 2.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 23340.0% to approximately $101. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.