MODEL VERDICT
Ford Motor Company (F) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $14.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $14.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $14.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $13.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $14.20 | Below threshold | -4.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $10.67 | -24.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $72.95 | +417.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $48.75 | +245.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $30.84 | +118.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $49.90 | +254.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $72.32 | +413.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.94 | +112.4% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 238.18 | 9.03 | 4.67 | 930.00 | 461.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 163.80 | 33.21 | 10.35 | 431.43 | 198.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.14 | 17.69 | 12.69 | 56.63 | 16.62 |
| P/FCF | 5.02 | 4.81 | 1.89 | 8.76 | 2.77 |
| P/FFO | 5.30 | 4.45 | 3.39 | 10.35 | 2.60 |
| P/TBV | 1.25 | 1.15 | 0.90 | 1.80 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 31.54 | 18.70 | 4.74 | 80.10 | 30.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.22 | 1.13 | 0.89 | 1.72 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.61 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates F's fair value at $29.94 vs the current price of $14.10, implying +112.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.38 (P10) to $46.22 (P90), with a median of $34.23.
F's current P/E of -6.8x compares to the industry median of 17.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -140.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 238.2x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
46 analysts cover F with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $13.19 (range: $12.00 — $16.00), implying -6.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (25), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for F.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.