MODEL VERDICT
Net Lease Office Properties (NLOP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 22 industry peers | $56.27 | +184.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 17 industry peers | $1.28 | -93.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 22 industry peers | $27.68 | +40.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $44.51 | +125.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $16.13 | -18.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.40 | +43.7% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates NLOP's fair value at $28.40 vs the current price of $19.77, implying +43.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.06 (P10) to $37.42 (P90), with a median of $31.15.
NLOP's current P/E of -3.2x compares to the industry median of 44.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -107.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover NLOP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $73.00 (range: $73.00 — $73.00), implying +269.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NLOP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.