MODEL VERDICT
NextNav Inc. (NN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $16.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $17.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $16.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $16.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.32 | Below threshold | +15.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $0.13 | -99.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.27 | -54.8% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 25.61 | 9.15 | 3.90 | 80.22 | 36.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.79 | 7.30 | 2.85 | 37.72 | 16.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 420.48 | 333.49 | 75.40 | 1127.11 | 422.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates NN's fair value at $7.27 vs the current price of $16.09, implying -54.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
NN's current P/E of -19.2x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -207.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover NN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying -44.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.