MODEL VERDICT
NOV Inc. (NOV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $20.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $19.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $19.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $19.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $20.93 | +5.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $19.73 | -0.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $10.29 | -48.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $45.60 | +129.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $36.48 | +83.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $53.10 | +167.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $42.07 | +111.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $38.76 | +95.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $10.79 | -45.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $49.02 | +146.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.74 | +39.6% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 43× | 47× | 51× (Current) | 55× | 59× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $22 | $24 |
| Conservative (7%) | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $25 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $24 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.72 | 24.60 | 8.11 | 53.56 | 22.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.44 | 14.05 | 7.52 | 30.15 | 9.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.98 | 10.09 | 5.69 | 35.04 | 12.00 |
| P/FCF | 19.68 | 7.53 | 6.07 | 58.11 | 22.23 |
| P/FFO | 27.06 | 11.72 | 5.91 | 93.40 | 37.41 |
| P/TBV | 1.84 | 1.72 | 1.35 | 2.62 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 24.52 | 21.62 | 7.96 | 46.89 | 19.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.14 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 1.60 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.65 | 1.14 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NOV's fair value at $27.74 vs the current price of $19.86, implying +39.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.32 (P10) to $34.74 (P90), with a median of $28.48.
NOV's current P/E of 50.9x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +93.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.7x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
58 analysts cover NOV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $19.38 (range: $15.00 — $24.00), implying -2.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (31), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NOV trades at the 8390th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NOV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.