MODEL VERDICT
ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $91.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $90.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $96.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $94.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $83.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $76.47 | -16.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $57.76 | -36.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $54.22 | -40.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $74.75 | -18.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $49.64 | -45.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $73.40 | -19.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $223.55 | +145.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $56.41 | -38.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $57.14 | -37.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $64.57 | -29.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $74.67 | -18.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $568.12 | +523.2% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 51× | 55× (Current) | 59× | 63× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (28%) | $100 | $109 | $117 | $126 | $134 |
| Conservative (45%) | $114 | $124 | $133 | $143 | $153 |
| Base Case (69.3%) | $133 | $144 | $156 | $167 | $178 |
| Bull Case (94%) | $152 | $165 | $178 | $191 | $204 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1478.92 | 773.81 | 91.73 | 4586.92 | 1640.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 1531.60 | 929.33 | 70.71 | 3047.58 | 1219.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 716.49 | 604.01 | 62.40 | 1186.96 | 393.07 |
| P/FCF | 271.19 | 309.89 | 35.05 | 411.53 | 127.18 |
| P/FFO | 608.87 | 584.53 | 64.52 | 1428.85 | 454.36 |
| P/TBV | 143.39 | 135.94 | 19.41 | 250.62 | 78.35 |
| P/AFFO | 1289.55 | 815.31 | 99.13 | 3377.20 | 1251.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 115.28 | 114.97 | 12.37 | 196.63 | 62.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 80.53 | 80.95 | 12.08 | 123.30 | 37.80 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NOW's fair value at $568.12 vs the current price of $91.16, implying +523.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $568.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $365.95 (P10) to $905.60 (P90), with a median of $607.09.
NOW's current P/E of 54.6x compares to the industry median of 32.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +68.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1478.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
68 analysts cover NOW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $151.52 (range: $85.00 — $225.00), implying +66.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (58), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NOW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 219680.0% to approximately $2094. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.