Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$108.01
→
Intrinsic$167.84
+55%
$112.42$167.84$277.95
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NOW could have 55% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $108, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (25%).
Range: Bear $112 → Bull $278. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $213 | $230 | $248 | $268 |
| 10% | $144 | $156 | $168 | $181 |
| 12% | $108 | $117 | $125 | $135 |
| 14% | $86 | $93 | $99 | $107 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($278) offers 157% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (13%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($112) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$5.72B
Year 2$7.15B
Year 3$8.94B
Year 4$11.17B
Year 5$13.96B
Terminal$221.29B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$4.58BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.